Don’t Take Balaji’s Bet of Bitcoin At $1 Million in 90 Days Seriously, Analysts Explain Why
On Saturday, March 18, veteran investor Balaji Srinivasan raised a major alarm stating that the United States is quickly moving into hyperinflation taking a massive $1 million bet on this. Interestingly, he’s also moving $2 million in USDC for the bet through Medlock.
I will take that bet.
You buy 1 BTC.
I will send $1M USD.
This is ~40:1 odds as 1 BTC is worth ~$26k.
The term is 90 days.
All we need is a mutually agreed custodian who will still be there to settle this in the event of digital dollar devaluation.
If someone knows how to do this… https://t.co/tcuBNd679T pic.twitter.com/6Aav9KeJpe
— Balaji (@balajis) March 17, 2023
Balaji’s massive bet on Bitcoin (BTC) has led to a storm in the crypto community discussions. The veteran investor’s comments come as the Fed has moved to money printing again amid a banking crisis unfolding in the US. Balaji writes:
The Fed has chosen to monetize the debt in the messiest way possible: an orgy of money printing and bank runs. $150B has already hit the banks and more is on the way. My bet is a way to ring the fire alarm and help you get to the exit in time: Bitcoin. The only global safe haven.
In another of his several tweets, Balaji predicts that there would be massive withdrawals from banks starting Monday onwards. He wrote:
The Fed made 100+ banks insolvent. Monday will see huge withdrawals. But moving to big banks is a trap. Trillions will be printed, and you will be diluted. You need an asset that can’t be seized. Bitcoin is the only global safe haven.
Don’t Take Balaji Seriously on His Bitcoin Bet
As the tweets from Balaji have caught wildfire all over, some Bitcoin proponents have voiced their opinion that investors should not take it seriously or fall for it. Popular market analyst Alex Kruger wrote:
Incredibly many taking the Balaji $BTC to $1 million in 90 days view seriously, because he is Balaji. This is an example of the cognitive bias “Appeal to Authority”. Chances of that happening are 0.0000%. The bet is insane unless there’s an ulterior motive. The issue is that a large percentage of the population is actually not intelligent enough to see this, and they are likely to gamble/invest thinking BTC may be going to $1 million soon.
Another market analyst Ali Martinez explains that an entire Chinese GDP should go into Bitcoin for it to reach $1 million in 90 days.
$18,797,203,666,237 would need to be invested into #Bitcoin to push it to $1,000,000 within 3 months. This simplified calculation doesn’t account for factors such as market liquidity, order book depth, depreciation in the US dollar value, and other market dynamics. https://t.co/KzyUQ6GyXV
— Ali (@ali_charts) March 18, 2023
While the market has been going absolutely crazy over the Balaji bet, one cannot neglect the possibility of Bitcoin touching $30,000 ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. Bitcoin has so far delivered a very strong performance amid the banking crisis.
Although with the Fed’s intervention last week, the contagion of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse continues to spread. Big banks like JPMorgan came to the rescue of the First Republic Bank last week. However, some analysts are expecting a far greater contagion ahead in the baking space and a never-like-before banking run.
Leading proponent for the “let it burn” camp finally admits what we were dealing with: 200-500 bank failures and that’s just for starters because nobody knows how to stop a bank run when it gets that big. God help us if these angry psychos ever get the wheel. https://t.co/Ry2VO2sVkh
— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) March 18, 2023
Is this the moment for Bitcoin to ultimately rise to the occasion and serve as the world’s reserve currency? The coming weeks shall put light on this. However, BTC’s recent performance makes us think that the reset is already kicking in.